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Polls Show Virginia Republican Candidates Lead in 3 Statewide Races

posted 11/02/09 6:42 pm
NewsChannel 8 - Polls Show Va. Republican Candidates Lead in 3 Statewide Races
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RICHMOND, Va. - Virginia Republicans are heading into Tuesday's election with wide margins in the polls. They're on pace to take the governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general seats for the first time since 2000.

The latest polls show Republicans leading by more than 10 points in each of the three statewide races. The Virginia GOP is also expected to widen its lead in the house of delegates. But that may not necessarily lead to the future dominance of the Republican Party in the Commonwealth.

One big advantage Republicans will likely have coming out of this election is more control over the redistricting process. But analysts caution not to overemphasize the influence of redistricting. In the early 1990s, when the Democrats had power over the process, the Republican Party staged a significant comeback -- so there's no guarantee that redistricting will give a party control over its fortunes in the next 10 years.

The other question is whether or not Virginia is shifting to the right. This will likely be the first time since 2000 that all three top seats go Republican. Analysts emphasize Virginia is a two-party state.

In last year's presidential race, Virginia went to a Democrat for the first time in 40 years, and some took this as a sign that Virginia was turning blue. After this election, it may seem the tide is turning back to red.

Mark Rozell, professor of public policy at George Mason University, says it would be a big mistake to project from this single election cycle any big lesson about the standing of political parties in Virginia.

"This is a two-party state where the party's fortunes can change from one year to the next depending on the political context, the state of the economy, [and] the quality of the campaigns being run," he said.

Analysts say the national political context clearly favored Republicans in state races this year, and that in Virginia, Republicans simply ran a better campaign.

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