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D.C. Tourism Rises, Though Experts Predict Downturn
   posted 11:05 am Wed August 27, 2008 - WASHINGTON
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The number of visitors to Washington rose in 2007 and is holding steady this year, though tourism officials are bracing for a decline in 2009 because of the weakening U.S. economy, according to statistics released Wednesday.

A steady increase in the number of international visitors in recent years could help offset a projected 4 percent decline in the number of leisure travelers and fewer conventions held in the city. Also, the inauguration of either Barack Obama (web|news|bio) or John McCain (web|news|bio) as the next president is expected to rejuvenate international interest in the city, said William Hanbury, president and chief executive of the tourism bureau Destination D.C.

"There's a sea change taking place, whether it's a Democrat or a Republican," Hanbury said, adding he believes the Bush administration policies damaged the U.S. image around the world. "If we start reaching out and acting a bit more collegially internationally, we're going to be in better shape."

Washington tourism saw a sharp decline following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, a loss of about 2 million visitors annually compared with figures from 2000. With steady increases in international travel, officials expect the number of foreign visitors will rebound to pre-9/11 levels by 2011.

"Any change is going to be an improvement for the U.S. tourism industry," Hanbury said.

Hanbury predicted both Obama and McCain would make Washington a more exciting place to visit, along with the reopening of the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History and the opening of the new Capitol Visitor Center later this year.

Still, tourism economist Ken McGill warns household income is beginning to decline in U.S. cities along the East Coast that help feed D.C. tourism.

"Travel decisions are primarily driven by economics," McGill said.

When money is tight, the competition among destinations cities like New York, Orlando and Washington will increase, so the capital city may have to spend more money on promotions to maintain its rank as the eighth-most visited U.S. destination, McGill said.

Washington counted 16.2 million visitors in 2007 - a 7 percent increase from the previous year, according to tourism officials. Visitor spending also increased 6 percent to $5.5 billion in 2007. The number of international visitors to the city rose 13 percent, due in part to the weak value of the dollar.

Without an increase in spending on advertising, McGill predicted overall visitation would decline slightly to 16 million in 2008 and 15.7 million in 2009 before the economy starts to rebound.

International visitors make up only about 8 percent of visitors to Washington but account for more than a quarter of tourism spending, shelling out more than $1,000 per visitor on average, compared with about $276 per domestic visitor. Statistics from the tourism group do not project how a decline in visitors will impact overall tourism spending, though McGill said he's confident spending by new international visitors will more than offset a downturn in domestic tourism spending.

He said Washington is in a better position than many cities.

"I think our projections for actual spending will actually translate into overall growth," he said.

Ram Sahi, who drove his family from Ottawa, Ontario to visit Washington, said they came in part for the shopping. He said he was able to get nearly equal conversion from his Canadian dollar to the U.S. dollar.

"This is the very best time for Canadians to visit the U.S. The only problem is the gasoline prices are pretty high (in the U.S.)," said Sahi, who was walking on the National Mall.

Giorgio Libotte of Rome, Italy, who was sitting near the Washington Monument, said his euros are letting him splurge a little on his visit.

Domestic travelers, though, had a harder time with travel costs. Ann Danielson of Denver said she could only make the trip to Washington by staying with a friend in northern Virginia to avoid pricey hotels.

So far in 2008, domestic flights to Reagan National Airport (web|news) and Dulles International Airport (web|news) have declined 6 percent, while international arrivals have increased about 7 percent, according to the tourism bureau. Hotel occupancy rates have been buoyed by record highs in April and July from major events including Pope Benedict XVI (web|news|bio) 's visit, the National Cherry Blossom Festival and large citywide conventions.

Earlier in 2008, the city rebranded itself with a new marking strategy inviting visitors to create their own "power trips" to D.C. and emphasizing the city's neighborhoods beyond the popular National Mall.

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